800 326 9054From March 2025 to February 2026, U.S. ag exporters lost $14.9 billion in sales to China on an annualized basis due to Chinese tariff retaliation, a new study finds, with soybeans accounting for almost half of the losses. The figure dwarfs the losses recorded in the first year of U.S-China trade tensions in President Donald Trump’s first term.
A new analysis from economists at North Dakota State University set for publication Wednesday estimates the impacts of China’s retaliatory tariffs imposed last year.
After the Trump administration slapped new duties on China for its role in the fentanyl crisis and raised tariffs on Chinese steel, aluminum and autos, the two sides became locked in a tit-for-tat tariff escalation that saw trade-weighted average Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods peak at almost 150%, according to data from the Peterson Institute of International Economics.
Both sides in October reached a tariff truce in Busan, South Korea, bringing the retaliatory tariffs down, but only after several months of depressed agricultural trade. Even after the truce, China maintains a 10% tariff on U.S. exports while Chinese goods remain subject to the administration’s 10% global tariff.
The episode incurred $14.9 billion in lost U.S. ag sales to China, the NDSU authors find. Soybeans bore the brunt of the losses, facing a shortfall of $6.8 billion in sales across the year. But beef and cotton also lost more than $1 billion in exports, tree nuts lost almost that much, and corn lost $333 million.
“Together, these five commodities account for approximately $10.7 billion, or 72% of the annualized shortfall,” the report notes.
At the state level, the largest export losses likely came from soybean-producing states in the U.S. Corn Belt. Based on its mix of agricultural commodities, Iowa was likely the most exposed to the retaliatory tariffs, the authors note, with $1.2 billion of missed exports to China. California and Illinois likely suffered similar losses based on the makeup of their agricultural industries.
Texas and Kansas could have taken a hit to the tune of $900 million, while Nebraska and Minnesota were vulnerable to around $700 million in losses.
The $14.9 billion figure surpasses the export losses incurred during 2018-2019, when Trump ratcheted up tariffs on China and Beijing lashed out against U.S. ag products.
The authors estimate that episode cost U.S. agriculture some $10.4 billion in annualized losses.
The effects of the latest trade conflict could also have longer-lasting effects, the authors argue. U.S. ag exports declined by similar amounts in both episodes, but they note that sales rebounded swiftly after the announcement of the Phase One deal in 2020.
“The current round has yet to show a comparable rebound,” they write. China had already pivoted to Brazilian and Argentinian soybean suppliers before the November truce, curtailing U.S. soybean exports across the whole 2025-2026 harvest.
Further, the lingering 10% tariff rate continues to weigh on U.S. agricultural sales.
The losses also exceed the assistance the Trump administration rolled out to help U.S. producers offset trade losses and other production challenges. Officials allocated $12 billion in so-called “bridge payments” in December.
Lawmakers have been discussing another round of assistance, but a legislative proposal has yet to materialize.
The NSDU report’s authors are careful to point out that the $14.9 billion figure only refers to lost exports to China. More U.S. agricultural sales to other countries have partially offset the trade losses. Increased domestic purchases of commodities could also have mitigated economic harm to farmers, the report argues.
The precise scale of these increased sales to other countries will be the subject of forthcoming NDSU research, the authors say.
They also note that, if realized, China’s latest purchase commitments of at least $17 billion in ag buys annually on top of the soybean pledges made in October would also represent a sizeable rebound.
The soybean commitment could be worth between $11 billion and $13 billion annually, putting total ag sales to China in 2026, 2027 and 2028 higher than 2024 levels but below 2022.
“Realized 2026 outcomes will likewise depend on implementation, the pace of state-buyer execution, and the broader macroeconomic and commodity-market environment over the commitment window,” they argue.
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*Sourced from Agri-Pulse.